Prediction Markets Score Thanks to World Cup’s Popularity

Prediction markets have reportedly seen a surge in trading volume thanks to the World Cup.

Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional volume in June, a 70% increase from May, CNBC reported Saturday (July 4), citing Dune Analytics. The platform has consistently seen volumes of more than $1 billion each day since the tournament commenced on June 11.

Rival predictions platform Polymarket’s international business set a record high in monthly volume in June, with notional trading surpassing $10.8 billion and reversing declines from April and May, the report added.

According to CNBC, more than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket has been traded on whether the U.S. will defeat Belgium in their game Monday (July 6) evening, even though the odds of an American victory are at a respective 4.3% and 3% for the two platforms.

The report noted that excitement for the World Cup has been a boon for prediction market platform Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, which debuted last month.

Rothera saw $2 billion in notional trading volume during June, and now holds 7% of American prediction market volume, CNBC added, citing Bank of America data.

Asaf Meir, CEO at Solidus Labs — a market integrity company that works with Kalshi — told CNBC the World Cup is a critical moment for platforms as both regulators and institutions are monitoring their performance.

Observers are asking, “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? Does it have enough volume?,” Meir said. “The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment.”

In other World Cup news, PYMNTS spoke last week with Justin Benson, CEO of Spreedly, who called the tournament “the ultimate test” for cross-border transactions.

“It’s really going to highlight any cracks that you might have in your approval process,” Benson told PYMNTS.

Major sporting events, that report said, have always drawn fraudsters, with digital commerce expanding the speed and scale of their attacks.

Benson pointed to a reported rise in World Cup-related ticket scams as a sign that criminals are already targeting tournament demand. The challenge for merchants is separating the genuine transactions from the fake.

A customer buying international airfare in the middle of the night using an unfamiliar payment method could be a scammer, or a lifelong soccer fan scrambling to find a seat before tickets vanish. This ambiguity forces merchants to juggle risk management and conversion.

“That’s the key and that’s the trick,” Benson said, warning against a binary approach where “my fraud controls are dialed up, or my fraud controls are zero.” Instead, merchants should embrace what he called “a blended spectrum mix of capabilities.”