As the race to win the multibillion-dollar sports gaming market in the United States enters its next phase, prediction markets are at the center of the storm.
“This is the most bullish I have ever felt about our future,” DraftKings CEO and co-founder Jason Robins said in the company’s third-quarter 2025 earnings press release Thursday (Nov. 6). “Underlying growth in the business is accelerating, and we are excited to launch DraftKings Predictions in the coming months, which we view as a significant incremental opportunity.”
DraftKings announced Oct. 21 the acquisition of Railbird Technologies and its wholly owned subsidiary, Railbird Exchange, which is a federally licensed exchange designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that focuses on event-based contracts.
“Sports is what’s driving” all the prediction market growth, overseas and in the U.S., Robins said during a conference call with analysts Friday (Nov. 7).
“People already associate us with sports … I think it’s going to be really tough for anyone to compete with us,” he added.
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DraftKings’ relationship with regulators is a bellwether for market decisioning.
“We are not going to be in every state with sports,” he said. “We will not even be in every state with non-sports. I think we have a good sense of where the sensitivity areas are.”
Still, the gaming platform lowered its forward guidance and saw monthly unique player growth rise just 2% during the quarter, to 3.6 million. The softer results saw DraftKings stock slide 7% in pre-market trading.
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Caught Between Outcomes and Metrics
While still subject to licensure, the upcoming launch of DraftKings Predictions, a new suite of sports event contracts, may bring legal predictions gaming to many states that do not allow online sports betting.
“Nearly half the country’s population remains without access to legal online sports betting,” Robins said during the call, which makes federally regulated predictions a greenfield play for customer capture.
DraftKings’ approach to predictions positions it as an incremental opportunity rather than a replacement. The company plans to initially prioritize states where it does not already offer sportsbook operations, chasing markets where “the vast majority of the financial opportunity exists,” Robins said.
Executives said predictions are structurally limited compared to sports betting but acknowledged that DraftKings holds a competitive edge over pure‐play prediction firms thanks to its robust tech stack, regulatory know-how and existing customer base. The company also anticipates that the growth of predictions will accelerate the push toward full-fledged sports betting legalization, particularly as states become more comfortable with real money gaming frameworks.
Still, DraftKings’ financials remain somewhat at the mercy of short-term sports outcomes. The company’s quarterly letter said sportsbook-friendly results in Q2 added approximately $100 million to revenue, only to give back over $300 million during September and October due to a handful of unfavorable NFL games. The company recognizes the risk inherent in being tied to high‐variance events like the Super Bowl or March Madness, but it said these outcomes ultimately balance out over time.
See also: DraftKings Cuts 2025 Outlook, Says Favored Teams Winning Drives Lower Margins
Broadcast Power Plays: ESPN and NBCUniversal
DraftKings also revealed two exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal. The deals could transform customer acquisition and engagement, particularly in ESPN’s case.
The ESPN partnership offers DraftKings unmatched brand visibility as the exclusive integration provider for all live sports and digital platforms across ESPN’s content universe, including 73% of national NBA broadcasts, according to an earnings presentation. The NBCUniversal agreement, meanwhile, enhances DraftKings’ omnichannel presence, bolstering its cross-platform storytelling and enhancing its ability to reach users beyond traditional ads.
These media partnerships will “unlock new channels for marketing support, product innovations, and customer experiences,” the presentation said.
At a time when customer acquisition costs are soaring across digital gaming, the company sees these platforms as long‐term levers for efficient, scalable growth.
The partnerships also contain the strategic subtext of differentiation. Flutter’s FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars all vie for wallet share, and DraftKings’ first‐mover advantage in the streaming and media space helps secure its dominance not just through the odds it offers, but through the contexts in which users engage and stay.
Spanish‐language functionality is also on the way, an initiative that Robins said during the call would meet the demands of a rising Hispanic audience ahead of the 2026 World Cup. On the iGaming front, the company is invested in content development, especially proprietary slots and jackpots under its DraftKings and Golden Nugget Online Gaming brands.
