Respondents’ mean perceived probability of finding a new job if they lost their current one fell by 4.2 percentage points to 43.1% in December, according to a press release about the findings of the December 2025 survey.
That figure marked the lowest level on record since the survey series’ start date of June 2013, per the release.
“The decline was driven by respondents with annual household incomes below $100,000 and it was most pronounced for those above age 60 and those with a high school degree or less,” the release said.
The survey also found that Americans believe it is more likely they could lose their job. The mean perceived probability of this happening in the next 12 months rose by 1.4 percentage points to 15.2%, per the release.
“The increase was broad-based across age and education groups,” the release said.
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In addition, Americans said they are less likely to voluntarily quit their job. The mean probability of quitting in the next 12 months decreased by 0.2 percent point to 17.5% in December, according to the release.
Americans’ expectations that the country’s unemployment rate will be higher a year from now decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 41.8%, and their expectations that their earnings will grow over the next year decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, per the release.
When the Department of Labor reported on Dec. 24, 2025, that there had been a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits together with an increase in insured employment, observers said this combination reflected a continuation of a “no hire, no fire” labor market.
Reuters reported that this was a continuing trend, while The Wall Street Journal said employers had been reluctant to lay off workers for most of 2025 because of a “hazy economic outlook.”
The Conference Board said in its December Consumer Confidence Index that consumers’ views of the labor market were weaker in December. From November to December, the share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 28.2% to 26.7%, while the percentage who said jobs were “hard to get” rose from 20.1% to 20.8%.
