Grocery prices rebounded in October, and eating out got more expensive, too. The increases put pressure on two parts of the food budget that households must manage with an eye on the confines of their wallets. Among paycheck-to-paycheck consumers who were keeping up with their bills, PYMNTS Intelligence found that breakfast or lunch out was among the first expenses many would drop if their finances tightened.
The Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday (Nov. 10) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October after a 0.6% increase in September. Food prices rose 0.5% after holding steady the month before. Grocery prices increased 0.4%, with dairy and fruits and vegetables each up 0.6% and meat, poultry, fish and eggs up 0.5%. The index for food away from home rose 0.5%.
The federal government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting its usual price data in October 2025, leaving the agency without a year-earlier reading for the overall index or for most categories. The BLS was able to publish October 2025 figures for a few indexes that use data from sources outside its surveys. Gasoline was among the categories with a published 12-month comparison in Tuesday’s release. Its index was up 37.4% from October 2025 and rose 1% in October alone after climbing 9.1% in September.
Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of October’s overall increase. The index for rent of primary residences rose 0.2%, while owners’ equivalent rent, which estimates what owner-occupied homes would rent for, rose 0.3%. The CPI’s shelter measure includes the estimated cost of living in an owned home, while consumers deciding which bills to pay are weighing actual expenses such as rent and mortgage payments.
What Households Would Keep Paying For
Mortgage or homeownership costs ranked first among the expenses consumers would protect if their budgets tightened, according to “Keep the House, Cut the Subscription: How Consumers Rank Spending,” a PYMNTS Intelligence report that surveyed 2,487 adults in the United States in September. About 23% of consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling with bills put these costs first, as did about 27% of those keeping up with bills on a paycheck-to-paycheck budget and those who did not live paycheck to paycheck. Among respondents struggling with bills, roughly 16% would protect ongoing healthcare spending and 12% would protect the cost of owning or leasing a car.
The choices were different for meals out. Among paycheck-to-paycheck consumers who were keeping up with bills and who bought breakfast or lunch out and considered it discretionary, 76% named it among their first cuts. Using the same criteria for each category, 72% would cut coffee or drinks out early and 70% would cut food delivery. The share was 57% for subscriptions. Respondents could name more than one category, and the figures describe what they said they would do under tighter budgets.
Some spending associated with meals at home had greater staying power. Among consumers in that same financial group who paid for grocery delivery or personal shopping and considered it discretionary, 12% would keep it for as long as possible. That was the largest share among the eight everyday categories compared for that group. Grocery delivery or personal shopping also ranked first among those struggling with bills.
The pullback on nonessentials was already visible earlier this year. The PYMNTS Intelligence report “The Fragmented Paycheck: Why Rising Spending No Longer Means Stronger Demand” found in July that 53% of consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling with bills said they had spent less on nonessentials over the preceding year, compared with 23% who spent more.
Big Purchases Are Already Waiting
The BLS’ October price report showed a 1.2% increase for furniture and bedding after two months of declines, while appliance prices rose 1.3%. Separately, the PYMNTS Intelligence report “Keeping Up Gets Harder: Debt Confidence Falls Among Bill Payers” found in October that 20% of consumers had delayed a major purchase in the preceding 90 days and 11.1% had canceled one. Those figures were up from 18.3% and 9.6%, respectively, in August.
Among consumers who traded down, delayed or canceled a major purchase, 34.9% cited high prices as their main reason, about twice the 17.6% who said they were waiting for a better deal or better timing.
