Goldman Finds Entry-Level Workers More Vulnerable to AI Displacement

New Goldman Sachs research suggests industries with greater artificial intelligence (AI) exposure could be rethinking their hiring options.

The impact of AI varies according to industry and levels of seniority, the banking giant said in the report “Global Economics Comment: Is AI Impacting Global Labor Markets?”, published Wednesday (Aug. 19).

“We find that industries with greater exposure to AI automation are associated with slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with a more negative relationship in Germany, Australia, and the U.S.,” the report said. “This cross-industry result confirms our prior finding that the onset of generative AI tools may have led companies in highly exposed industries to reevaluate their hiring plans.”

Goldman’s researchers said they’ve seen evidence that employment in the “highly exposed” information and communication service industries has lagged due to AI. While this trend is global, the impacts are “most compelling” in the U.S.

The research shows employment in call centers, software publishing, advertising services and management consulting all falling “sharply below trend,” particularly in terms of call centers: down 39% below trend in the U.S., 33% in Canada and 27% in Germany.

“These patterns confirm that, like in the U.S., AI-employment headwinds are visible in industries where labor-automating tools are already available,” the report said.

In addition, the researchers noted that recent anecdotes and U.S. labor market data indicate that AI displacement could be stronger among entry-level employees. Goldman said its findings show AI-related headwinds were felt more strongly by workers just starting out.

“Overall, our analysis confirms that the conclusions from the U.S. hold globally. AI-related hiring headwinds are clearly visible in official and unofficial employment data, but impacts are limited to a narrow set of industries and workers,” the report concluded.

Meanwhile, recent research by PYMNTS Intelligence shows the impact of AI on “Labor Economy” workers, or those who make up to $25 an hour and typically under $50,000 per year.

“The Resilience Deficit: Labor Workers in an Automated Economy” found that AI is spreading across all types of workplaces, with 37% of these employees saying their company had introduced new AI or automation tools in the last 12 months.

However, the research also shows that lower-income employees are getting less training, exhibiting less confidence and finding fewer financial buffers to absorb disruption.

“The findings also suggested that AI’s impact is moving beyond Silicon Valley and corporate offices into warehouses, restaurants, hospitality, logistics and caregiving jobs that make up a large share of everyday consumer spending,” PYMNTS wrote earlier this year.