That is the central finding of “Tariffs Turn Up the Heat as Product Leaders Confront Peak Uncertainty,” a new PYMNTS Intelligence report based on an October survey of product chiefs at U.S. firms with $100 million to $1 billion in annual revenue.
Nearly half of product leaders at goods-producing companies say tariffs are already hurting their business finances, underscoring how quickly trade policy has moved from an abstract risk to an operational problem. At the same time, companies are navigating an information vacuum. The federal government’s decision to cancel the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, combined with a delayed retail sales report that ultimately showed slowing consumer spending, has left firms without reliable signals about demand or economic momentum.
For product leaders, the impact is immediate. Goods companies report rising expectations of shortages, shipping delays and costly supply-chain reconfigurations. Nearly nine in 10 product leaders at goods firms expect disruptions, and roughly seven in 10 anticipate higher costs tied to rerouting suppliers and logistics. Service firms are feeling the strain as well, though less acutely.
The pressure is reshaping strategy in real time. More than half of product leaders say their companies are pulling resources away from long-term technology and innovation initiatives and redirecting them toward short-term cost controls. Renegotiating supplier contracts, reshuffling workflows and freezing discretionary spending are replacing growth plans. This shift is most pronounced at goods firms and among companies whose performance has deteriorated this year.
Artificial intelligence investment is not immune. Six in 10 product leaders say tariff-driven uncertainty has constrained funding for AI and automation, rising to more than seven in 10 at goods firms. Where AI spending continues, it is increasingly tactical. Companies are prioritizing AI-driven supply-chain optimization and efficiency gains over broader, transformational deployments.
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Underlying these decisions is a sharp rise in uncertainty itself. More than a third of product leaders at goods firms now report high operational uncertainty, more than double the level seen a year ago. Smaller firms are being hit hardest, with many reporting a direct impact on business performance in just the past 30 days.
Taken together, the data points to a middle market operating under pressure, with tariffs accelerating a shift from growth to survival and forcing leaders to act before the economic picture fully comes into focus.
