Goods Firms Sweat Tariffs While Services Firms See Clearer Skies

Sit down for coffee with the CEO of a medium-sized pet supplies importer, and the conversation likely turns to trade policy and general unease about the economy and consumer landscape. Head cross-town to chat with the owner of a similar-sized software company, and you might hear a very different story — of projected growth and optimism.

PYMNTS Intelligence defines “uncertainty,” the subject of our Certainty Report series since February 2024, as surveyed corporate executives’ assessment of unpredictability or lack of assurance in critical business areas, including accounts payable and receivable, cash and liquidity positions, macroeconomic conditions, consumer and customer demand, risk management, compliance and regulatory issues, supply chains, payments capabilities, exchange rates and competitive positions. Our forthcoming report finds that the cloud of uncertainty that blanketed last year’s business climate now breaks down into distinct layers for companies with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion.

Mid-sized companies in the United States number around 200,000, the most recent data from the National Center for the Middle Market shows. The companies account for roughly one-third of U.S. GDP and private sector employment, making them critical components of the national economy and labor force. As of last November, just over 1 in 4 were operating under high uncertainty. Nearly 4 in 10 were grappling with medium-level uncertainty, while a notch over 3 in 10 felt a low degree of uncertainty.

Revenue Contraction

Cue the layers in the clouds. Firms whose executives are grappling with heightened levels of uncertainty are focused not on expansion but on survival and muddling through. The PYMNTS data reveals that 35% of high-uncertainty firms expect their revenue to shrink in 2026. This figure represents a severe counterpoint to the traditional corporate goal of annual growth, signaling that for more than one-third of these struggling companies, the objective this year is to contain losses, not capture new value.

This tempered outlook forces a defensive posture that shapes every aspect of a company’s strategic planning. Because these firms can’t predict the terrain ahead with confidence, they’re unable or unwilling to commit to the strategies required for expansion, whether with existing customers, new one or in new geographies.

Instead, their narrative for 2026 is defined by caution. Fewer than 1 in 4 CFOs in the high-uncertainty bracket believe they will see any revenue increase at all this year. Their operational story focuses on being trapped navigating immediate hurdles rather than pulling ahead.

Here We Go

The other weather system for some mid-market companies is far less cloudy. For companies with low uncertainty, 2026 promises to be a chapter of robust expansion. The divergence from high-uncertainty firms is absolute: While high-uncertainty counterparts brace for revenue declines, nearly all low-uncertainty firms are predicting growth in 2026. Specifically, 96% of executives in low-uncertainty companies forecast higher revenue this year, a near-universal consensus of optimism within this group.

This divergence highlights the central theme for the 2026 economy: The emerging narrative centers on how perceptions of uncertainty are creating two distinct realities for middle-market executives. The gap between the 35% of high-uncertainty firms expecting contraction and the 96% of low-uncertainty firms expecting growth illustrates a marketplace that is being pulled apart.

The low-uncertainty firms are free to pursue offensive strategies, leveraging their stability to capture market share and drive financial gains. Meanwhile, the high-uncertainty firms are weighed down by the “cost” of their unpredictability, which manifests directly in their top-line projections.

Industry Divide

Not surprisingly, the divide between high uncertainty and low uncertainty traces the split between the goods and services sectors. Goods firms faced a significant spike in volatility last year, while the services sector generally stabilized. Driven by the impact of tariffs on their imports and supply chain dependencies, the share of goods-sector CFOs reporting high uncertainty spiked to nearly 30% in 2025, a 27% increase from the prior year. By November 2025, uncertainty for goods firms had peaked at 157% of the 2024 average, suggesting that conditions for these companies continued deteriorate as the year closed.

Within the goods sector, however, the pressure was not distributed equally. A big split occurred between producers, such as manufacturing and construction firms, and those in trade and distribution. The share of CFOs at goods producers reporting high uncertainty jumped 2.5 times, rising from 13% in 2024 to 32% in 2025. This surge among producers accounted for the entire increase in high uncertainty across all companies surveyed. In contrast, goods traders and distributors actually saw their uncertainty levels drop from 35% in 2024 to 27% in 2025.

The services sector also displayed a complex breakdown. Overall, high uncertainty among services firms dropped from 34% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, with significant improvements seen in education, healthcare and professional services. But technology and financial services firms didn’t share in this stabilization. The technology and information sector remained under elevated pressure, with 38% of CFOs reporting high uncertainty in both 2024 and 2025.

This stagnation reflects an environment where firms have had to adapt to lightning-quick, game-changing advances in artificial intelligence and massive spending by artificial intelligence “hyperscalers” like Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Financial services companies similarly remained stuck in a high-risk posture, with 50% of executives reporting high uncertainty in both years.

Read more:

How Middle-Market Business Uncertainty Rewrote 2025

Revising the Roadmap: How Tariffs Are Transforming CFOs’ Strategic Planning

Tariffs Turn Up the Heat as Product Leaders Confront Peak Uncertainty