The round would give the company a valuation of around $15 billion, including the new funds, The Information reported Sunday (April 19), citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the report, this financing would add to the $600 million already invested in the company by New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange.
The report notes that a $15 billion valuation would still be below the $22 billion reached last month by rival prediction market Kalshi. However, the new valuation would still be more than 66% higher than the $9 billion the company achieved in a funding round last year.
The report also postulates a reason for the difference in valuations: Polymarket has only recently begun serving U.S. customers and charging fees to drive revenue, while Kalshi had a head start in the U.S., with annualized revenues of $1.5 billion.
Polymarket, unlike Kalshi, settles trades on a blockchain and has discussed issuing its own token, the report added. The company is also planning an initial public offering, sources familiar with its thinking told The Information.
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The funding plans come in the wake of a surge in popularity of prediction markets, which let users purchase event contracts — derivatives that pay out to investors who correctly predict the outcome of things like sporting events or elections.
A recent report by Wall Street broker Bernstein forecasts that prediction market volumes will reach $1 trillion by 2030. This will happen as the industry shifts from niche bets to a larger “information market” covering sports, cryptocurrency, politics and the economy, the report said.
Volumes came to $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach around $240 billion this year, which implies roughly 80% compound annual growth through the rest of the decade, the report added. Activity has already accelerated so far this year, with Polymarket and Kalshi seeing combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion.
“Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participation from institutions,” the analysis said.
Still, prediction markets have become a flashpoint between federal and state regulators, as PYMNTS wrote last year.
“While real-money prediction markets technically fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a growing number of states have sought to shut down the markets they view as unlicensed or illegal gambling operations,” that report said.
