The transaction was executed between a Houston-based environmental hedge fund and institutional liquidity provider Jump Trading Group, according to Greenlight Commodities, which is a Houston-based, Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed introducing broker.
It shows that institutional block orders can be facilitated through the regulatory framework used across traditional wholesale commodities markets, including National Futures Association (NFA) registration, CFTC market oversight, and execution through designated contract markets (DCMs) and derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs), like Kalshi and other regulated exchanges, the release said.
“As more institutions seek new ways to express views, hedge exposure and access event-driven opportunities, prediction markets are evolving into a serious component of modern market structure,” Greenlight Commodities Director John Conlon said in the release. “This first block trade is only the beginning.”
Kalshi Vice President of Business Development Max Crowley told Bloomberg in a report published Monday that the transaction is “a step forward as far as us having institutional functionality and support to be able to do these types of transactions.”
A Jump representative said in the report: “We expect institutional demand to quickly expand across a wide range of contracts.”
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PYMNTS reported in January that prediction markets are breaking into the mainstream and drawing interest from crypto, betting, finance and major institutions.
It was reported April 15 that Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to hit $1 trillion by 2030 as the industry moves from niche bets to a larger “information market” that covers sports, cryptocurrency, politics and the economy.
Volumes reached $51 billion last year and are on track to come to around $240 billion this year, which implies approximately 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade.
It was reported March 8 that Kalshi was in discussions with investors about raising funds and was targeting a valuation of $20 billion. The company was valued at about half that figure in late 2025.
When Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series E funding round that valued it at $11 billion, the company said it is credited with legalizing and establishing prediction markets as a financial asset class.
