Citing an analysis by JPMorgan Chase, Bloomberg reported the Wall Street bank doesn’t think the next financial crisis will be as painful as past crises, but that it is coming. According to the analysis, stocks could decline around 20 percent with the next crisis, the U.S. corporate bond yield premiums will be at around 1.15 percentage points, and there will be a 35 percent decline in energy prices and a 29 percent decline in base metals. What’s more, the model predicts a 48 percent decline in emerging market stocks and a 14.4 percent decline in emerging currencies.
“Across assets, these projections look tame relative to what the GFC delivered and probably unalarming relative to the recession/crisis averages” of the past, JPMorgan Strategists John Normand and Federico Manicardi wrote. The analysts noted that during the most recent recession and global financial crisis, the S&P 500 declined 54 percent from the peak.
In a separate research report out of JPMorgan, analysts warned of a liquidity crisis that may emerge. “The shift from active to passive asset management, and specifically the decline of active value investors, reduces the ability of the market to prevent and recover from large drawdowns,” Joyce Chang and Jan Loeys wrote in the research note earlier this week.
According to JPMorgan estimates, actively managed accounts represented one-third of equity assets under management, with active trading in single stocks accounting for just 10 percent of trading volume. That shift, according to Bloomberg, “eliminated a large pool of assets that would be standing ready to buy cheap public securities and backstop a market disruption.”
One bright spot could be the deep decline in emerging markets this year. The Wall Street firm said its emerging markets have reached a level that will help to limit the peak-to-trough declines during the next crisis.