That’s according to Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chair, testifying Tuesday (June 24) that the Fed needs to see if tariffs push inflation higher before deciding on the interest rate cuts that President Donald Trump has demanded.
“Increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity,” said Powell, whose testimony to the House Financial Services Committee was reported by Reuters.
“The effects on inflation could be short-lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. … For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
The Reuters report noted that two Fed governors in recent days — both of them Trump appointees — have said rates could come down as soon as the July meeting considering that inflation has not yet risen in response to tariffs. However, two reserve bank presidents have said they are concerned inflation will intensify as the year goes on.
In his comments ahead of the hearing, committee chair Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., dismissed the notion that tariffs would drive up inflation.
“There is always some economic uncertainty when the United States engages in difficult negotiations necessary to secure more open markets for American goods and services. But that uncertainty is not without a strategy,” Hill said.
“One Fed official, Governor Waller, has outlined how a balanced approach, combining potential rate cuts with targeted tariffs, could still foster strong economic growth.”
As covered here Tuesday, the most recent inflation data suggest that the effect of tariffs overall has so far not been as drastic as some may have feared. Still, consumers are thinking what’s to come, with a spending picture that is mixed at best.
Tuesday also saw the release of The Conference Board latest report on consumer confidence, which declined following a bounce in May. The overall index fell to 93, down from 98.4 in the prior month.
“The look ahead, in terms of forward looking expectations, showed a 69 reading, down from 73.6 in May,” PYMNTS wrote. “Future business conditions also waned, as 16.7% of consumers said they expect business conditions to improve in six months. That’s lower than the 19.9% in May.”
