For the world’s biggest retailers, summer means two things: sales events, and more sales events.
Amazon kicked off its annual summer sale on Tuesday (July 8), and the eCommerce giant announced that its Prime Day event will now stretch over four days instead of the usual two, running from July 8 through July 11. Walmart has responded with its own counterpunch: a reinvigorated Walmart+ Week, launching the same day, loaded with its own slate of member-exclusive deals.
But from tariff anxiety to full-priced deals masked as discounts, this summer’s shopping season could be a litmus test for America’s evolving retail resilience. The biggest question on retailers’ minds may be this: will consumers behave differently than they did last year?
In 2024, shoppers entered July deal season under a cloud of economic uncertainty. While inflation was slowing, consumers were still reeling from years of price volatility and interest rate hikes. Credit card balances had reached all-time highs, and discretionary spending was under pressure.
PYMNTS Intelligence found that last year, consumers struggled to purchase the items they wanted on sale during the summer online shopping bonanza. Fast forward to 2025, and global tariffs have thrown supply chains and pricing strategies into disarray, while consumer confidence continues to slide. Will the story be the same? Who will come out ahead this year, the retailers, their shoppers or both?
Read more: The Year in Amazon vs Walmart, and a Look Into 2025
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What Happened Last Year and Could This Year Be Different?
The stakes this year are high. For both retailers, mid-year sales have become about more than just clearing inventory; they are strategic stress tests for supply chains, pricing models and consumer sentiment.
Both events are unfolding against a backdrop where the 2024 Prime Day and Walmart+ Week events were less than stellar for many consumers.
Despite months of anticipation, a key finding from PYMNTS Intelligence’s 2024 post-sale report, “BNPL Fuels Essential Spending Surge on Amazon Prime Day, Walmart+ Week,” revealed that a significant portion of shoppers left disappointed. While 75% of participants said they joined the sales to find deals on products they buy regularly, many didn’t see the deep discounts they were hoping for.
A separate report, “Shoppers Flocked to Amazon Prime Day and Walmart+ Week for More Than Discounts,” found that 41% of items bought on Amazon Prime Day were full-priced, while 44% of Walmart+ Week purchases were not discounted.
The lack of markdowns was not lost on consumers, especially in an economic climate where every dollar counts. Many voiced frustration that the “deals” were either unavailable, sold out within minutes or didn’t apply to the everyday essentials they needed most.
This year, the wild card isn’t inflation. It’s tariffs. Both Amazon and rival Walmart are working on ways to overhaul their supply chains in response to the tariffs, and consumer optimism about the impact of the tariffs varies greatly depending on what they value in their purchases, according to the report PYMNTS Intelligence “Consumer Tariff Sentiment: Informed Americans Are Skeptical of the Benefits.”
See also: Amazon and Walmart Focus AI Investments on Their Retail Soft Spots
The Tariff Effect Emerges as a New Variable in 2025
Tariffs are changing the equation on what products get discounted — and how deeply. In May, retail sales slipped 0.9%, adding to a revised 0.1% decline in April.
When offered the choice between low-priced or American-made products, 39% of shoppers always or mostly value affordability, a feature associated with goods imported from low-cost China. On the flip side, 34% of consumers said they always or mostly prefer items made in the U.S., and 26% placed equal weight on both.
PYMNTS Intelligence research has also found that more than 8 in 10 consumers are taking measures to offset the financial impact of tariffs on their bank accounts.
“In fact, the average individual is making nearly five such behavioral changes, and 44% of consumers have already changed their shopping habits in response to tariff-induced price pressures,” PYMNTS wrote last month.
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “The Urban-Rural Economic Divide: How Location Affects SMBs’ Outlook” found that nearly 1 in 3 rural small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) (30%) report their sales are down.
Perhaps the most underreported trend is what we might call “discount fatigue.” After years of being bombarded with sales events — Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Spring Savings, Flash Sales — many consumers have grown skeptical. They now approach sales with caution, armed with price-comparison tools and browser plugins that expose inflated prices disguised as markdowns.
Shoppers are prepped and ready to spend, but they want to feel in control, not manipulated.
