Through direct surveys of executives across sectors, we’ve chronicled how tariffs and regulatory shifts inject uncertainty into corporate planning, and how resourceful firms are adapting to volatile conditions and uncharted operational waters as they prepare for the holiday season.
Regulatory Uncertainty Compounds the Pressure
The latest findings, gleaned from 60 denizens of the C-suite, showed just how pervasive these pressures have become. Among all goods firms surveyed, 65% reported operational disruptions tied to uncertainty. Among companies facing high levels of regulatory flux, that share rose to 83%, and 61% of executives cited long-term planning difficulties. Delayed or canceled investments were acknowledged by 65% of goods firms.
These findings underscore that tariffs are only part of the problem. As regulatory frameworks and compliance obligations evolve, from trade restrictions to financial disclosure requirements, firms are juggling not just rising input costs but also shifting rulebooks that complicate risk management. Executives interviewed by PYMNTS said the combination of tariffs and compliance unpredictability has changed the cadence of how they manage vendor relationships, inventories and cash flow forecasts.
Supply Chains: The Epicenter of Uncertainty
Nowhere are these challenges felt more acutely than in supply chains. In the last 24 hours, Mattel’s third-quarter earnings results, reported Tuesday (Oct. 21), demonstrated that ordering patterns have become increasingly volatile as the toy maker manages tariff exposure ahead of the holidays. Also, further tariff uncertainty may affect buying cycles and shipping schedules, especially as 100% tariffs on Chinese imports remain a possibility.
For manufacturers and retailers, the outcome is rebalanced sourcing, shortened contract horizons and contingency planning that shifts production between domestic and international suppliers to limit exposure during peak demand periods.
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From Disruption to Discipline
PYMNTS Intelligence data showed that companies reporting strong performance metrics are managing uncertainty more effectively. These firms invest earlier in scenario planning, adjust cash flow forecasts monthly instead of quarterly, and diversify their logistics providers. That agility helps prevent small supply shocks from becoming existential crises.
Findings from PYMNTS Intelligence’s May Certainty Project reinforced these patterns. More than half of heads of payments at goods-oriented firms identified tariffs and cross-border policy volatility as the top factors driving cost escalation and planning strain. Firms with more than 15 international suppliers were more likely to overhaul risk management frameworks. Those adjustments correlated with fewer major operational disruptions.
The report also revealed how uncertainty extends beyond logistics into finance. Sixty-four percent of treasurers said tariffs complicate cash flow forecasting, while 57% cited tighter working capital cycles as suppliers shorten terms or hedge costs. More than one-third reported delays in trade finance approvals, turning uncertainty into a liquidity challenge as well as a supply one. Firms investing in real-time cash visibility tools were 40% less likely to miss vendor payments, underscoring the connection between data agility and resilience.
The Bottom Line
Tariffs remain an unpredictable lever in the global economy, capable of reshaping corporate logistics and margins almost overnight. Yet, as PYMNTS research shows, firms that maintain diversified supply chains, dynamic cash flow monitoring and disciplined compliance frameworks can blunt much of the turbulence. This holiday season will test how effectively corporate strategy has evolved from reacting to uncertainty to managing it as a constant.
