October Retail Sales Grew Slower Than Anticipated

U.S. retail sales rose 0.3 percent in October to $553.3 billion, missing forecasts but still up for the sixth consecutive month, according to the monthly U.S. Census Bureau report released on Tuesday (Nov. 17). 

Despite the pandemic’s negative effect on the economy, 2020 retail sales in October were 5.7 percent higher than the same month last year. Total sales from August through October were up 5.1 percent from the same period a year ago. 

A Bloomberg survey forecasted a 0.5 percent increase for October. September retail numbers were up 1.6 percent.  

While the readings were slightly weaker than expected across a number of categories, “we’re not taking any strong signal from this report,” Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, told Bloomberg. 

“We did expect private consumption to decelerate in the fourth quarter off its previous pace, so this is in line with what we were expecting in terms of direction,” he added. “Looking to 2020, labor markets seem to be holding up just fine, and income growth is still quite solid.”

Rising COVID-19 infections and new lockdowns are expected to slow economic recovery, economists have said.

On a more positive note, Bank of America Global Research reported that retailers are experiencing the busiest sales since 2013 across the time period leading up to Black Friday, per Bloomberg.

In September, numbers from the Commerce Department showed that retail sales increased in every category, up 1.9 percent over August to reach $549.3 billion, and surpassing forecasts. Numbers were up 8.2 percent year over year.

Electronics and appliances were the only category to drop, down to $7.7 billion from $7.8 billion in August. eCommerce was up 23.8 percent from September, and up 1.6 percent from 2019.

A drop in consumer credit card balances is not expected to lead to an increase in holiday spending. Total card balances are $723 billion, a drop of over 10 percent year over year and the lowest since Q2 2017.