Today’s economy, with its hot-and-cold tariff warfare, qualifies as a challenging time and has already seen months of disrupted global supply chains that could signal a new era of fragmented bilateral trade agreements.
PYMNTS Intelligence’s May edition of The 2025 Certainty Project, “Tariffs and Business Uncertainty: The Current State of Play,” found that more than half of the respondents in goods-producing sectors anticipate negative impacts from tariffs, an increase from previous months. This sentiment is driven by expectations of supply chain disruptions, product delivery delays and rising raw material costs.
The pervasive and ongoing uncertainty is influencing business decisions, with many firms delaying investments and hiring plans until there is more clarity on trade policies. The first quarter of 2025 saw the U.S. economy shrink by 0.3%, the first contraction since 2022, underscoring the tangible impact of trade tensions on economic performance.
The rules that once delivered predictable growth — global outsourcing, just-in-time inventory and quarterly optimization — no longer guarantee success. Instead, agility, resilience and innovation are emerging as cornerstones of corporate survival.
Navigating the Tariff Turbulence Takes Agility, Variety
What worked in the last decade, including tactics like cheap capital, globalization and digital convenience, is now being challenged by inflation, supply shocks and political volatility. In response to these ongoing macro challenges, the PYMNTS Intelligence report found that mid-sized firms are exploring various strategies.
Among goods firms, 63% plan to negotiate with suppliers for better prices, while 42% are considering raising prices on their products.
Although services firms are less directly affected by import tariffs, they are not immune to the ripple effects. Nearly 3 in 4 said they plan to reduce operational costs. Additionally, 55% expect to diversify international suppliers.
Approximately 90% of goods-producing firms expect product delivery delays or shortages, while a similar proportion foresee higher raw material costs. These disruptions are prompting companies to reevaluate their supply chain strategies, with many considering diversifying suppliers or renegotiating terms to mitigate the impact.
As mid-sized U.S. businesses navigate this complexity, adaptability and strategic planning become paramount. While the path forward is fraught with challenges, companies that proactively address supply chain vulnerabilities, manage costs effectively and remain agile in their operations are better positioned to weather the storm.
Technology is also rewriting the business rulebook at breakneck speed. What began as a buzzword — digital transformation — has become a survival imperative. The pandemic accelerated cloud adoption, eCommerce and remote work technologies by years. Now, artificial intelligence is forcing another reckoning.
The next decade will be defined not by those who predict the future with certainty, but by those who build organizations nimble enough to adapt. From legacy conglomerates to scrappy upstarts, the winners will be those who let go of what no longer serves them and forge new paths forward.
