The forecast from the automotive industry data solutions company Wednesday (Oct. 7) comes as consumers continue to exhibit declining sentiment amid high interest rates and gas prices.
Cox says it has lowered the year-end outlook for its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, expecting it to finish the year up around 0.2% for 2026, down from the 2% increase it had projected in July. Non-adjusted wholesale used-vehicle prices dipped 1.2% year over year and 1.3% from August as depreciation increased during the third quarter.
“We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year,” Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said in a news release.
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“The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting.”
As the fourth quarter of the year gets under way, Cox says it is still focusing on those factors, as well as dwindling consumer sentiment.
The company says an aging U.S. vehicle fleet, stronger fleet demand and financial asset growth could offer support, while policy changes following the election and the timing of electric vehicle imports from China are critical variables for 2027.
“Taken together, we’re entering Q4 with our antennas up,” Robb said. “Many of the metrics we routinely track are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth.”
PYMNTS has been tracking declining consumer sentiment on the state of the American economy. The PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index for September fell 0.7 points to 54.1 amid souring feelings about the economy, buying conditions and job mobility. Most of the downturn was caused by feelings about the overall economy and the timing of major purchases.
The report likened the state of consumers’ personal finances to the gas gauge of a car that holds the same number of gallons as before but has begun burning fuel more quickly.
“That’s effectively what’s happening to household savings. Confidence is holding steady, but rising costs mean savings buy less time than they used to,” the report said.
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