Service sector firms in New York State and nearby areas became pessimistic about the business outlook in early October, for the first time since December 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its October “Business Leaders Survey.”
The survey’s index for future business activity fell 10 points to –5.1, putting it in negative territory for the first time since December. The negative index reading means that firms expect a small decline in business activity over the next six months, according to the report.
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“Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector declined significantly in October,” Richard Deitz, economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in the report. “Employment was flat, and price increases remained widespread. Firms turned somewhat pessimistic about the outlook.”
The New York Fed conducts the “Business Leaders Survey” once a month by asking 150 executives of service sector firms across its district, which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey and Fairfield Country, Connecticut, about key business indicators. The executives represent firms from a variety of industries other than the manufacturing sector, according to a page about the survey.
The latest survey was released Friday (Oct. 16) and includes responses collected between Oct. 2 and Oct. 9, per the page.
The survey found that the headline business activity index fell 12 points to –20.7, its lowest level since March; the employment index rose 5 points to 0, meaning employment held steady; the prices paid index remained near 70.0, meaning input prices continued to rise sharply; and the prices received index rose 3 points to 36.3, its highest level in four years.
The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday (Oct. 13) that small business optimism dipped in September to a reading that was the lowest since June and just below the index’s 52-year average. The NFIB highlighted respondents’ rising concerns about “labor quality or availability.”
The Conference Board said Thursday (Oct. 15) that CEO confidence declined in the fourth quarter, with executives’ views of current and expected economic conditions turning moderately negative. This survey was conducted from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5.
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