Job Growth Moderates as Labor Market Remains Stable

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm payroll, employment in all major industries and the unemployment rate “changed little” in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday (Oct. 2) in its latest employment situation summary.

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    Media reports characterized the numbers as a continuation of the “low hire, low fire” trend in the economy.

    According to the BLS summary, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September, compared to an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months, while the unemployment rate was gauged at 4.2%, which was within the narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3% that has been seen since March.

    The number of unemployed people, too, “changed little” and was found to be 7.1 million, according to the BLS summary.

    The Wall Street Journal, Reuters and Bloomberg each included the phrase “low hire, low fire” in Friday reports about the BLS summary and the state of the economy.

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    The Wall Street Journal reported that the job gains reported by the BLS were “anemic” but that they don’t have to be as high as they used to be in order to keep the unemployment rate low. An aging population and a reduction in immigration have reduced the need for new jobs, according to the report.

    The unemployment rate of 4.2% remains at a historically low level and signals that the labor market is “generally healthy,” the WSJ said.

    Reuters reported that the moderation in job growth reported by the BLS “likely does not mark a sudden deterioration in labor market conditions.” The report said that payrolls tend to underperform when Labor Day falls later in September, as it did this year, and that there has been no great increase in layoffs.

    Bloomberg reported that the slower job growth may signal some caution among employers but layoffs remained subdued and the job market stayed relatively stable.

    The BLS said in its summary: “Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.”

    The agency highlighted three industries that saw gains during the month, saying health care employment was up by 17,000, construction employment was up by 11,000 and manufacturing employment was up by 9,000.

    Financial activities employment was down by 7,000. Employment in this sector is down by 129,000 since it peaked in May 2025. Most of the job loss during that period was in insurance carriers and related activities, where employment declined by 90,000.