CFPB

The Trump Administration: The Good, The Bad and The Possible

Now that the simple surprise factor has worn off and Americans and global markets have started getting their heads around the idea of President Donald J. Trump, the inevitable question coming is “now what?”  Everyone understands that Trump won, of course — but the pressing question is what that win will mean for the various parts of the economic ecosystem.

So who’s up and down as of this morning?

Dodd-Frank’s Potential Dismantling Is Banking’s Big Win 

The president-elect and his transition team have been fairly open about the intent to repeal Dodd-Frank and “replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation.”

What those policies will be remains up in the air — but it is notable that Trump’s transition team is considering Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who has crafted a deregulatory alternative to the Dodd-Frank law and has been a long fan of its dismantling.

Mr. Trump’s talk of deregulation has helped fuel a rally in bank stocks this week — pushing it up 12 percent and doubling its progress this year. And while banks large and small would both be happy to see some of Dodd-Frank done away with — particularly the unlimited power and budget of the CFPB — some CEOs are urging the Trump administration to be careful not to toss the baby with the bathwater.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein said at a conference sponsored by the New York Times on Thursday that it “could be appropriate to look at” repealing some parts of Dodd-Frank, but he added that he wouldn’t “want to repeal in toto.”

A Less Glowing Day For Tech And Exporters 

Jeff Bezos has officially congratulated President Elect Trump — but the consensus is that tech could have some troubles if Trump reins in immigration, given the volume of high-skill foriegn workers there are in Silicon Valley. Automakers are also having some heartburn, particularly in the face of Trump’s stated ambition to force American companies to stay in America. Agriculture faces a split decision — fewer regulations could be helpful, on the one hand, but a looming trade war could drastically reduce the number of markets for their goods.

And then there are insurance firms, who’ve had a profitable few years thanks to the power of the mandate that customers must buy insurance. Trump has promised to roll back the ACA — which could take a pretty big bite out of the customer base of the industry.

 

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