November Consumer Confidence Jumps, but Spending Plans Mixed

Headed into Black Friday, consumers are more positive than they have been in months.

That’s among the takeaways from the latest reading of The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday (Nov. 26). The November report came in at 111.7 and is at the top of the range recorded through the past two years. It’s up more than two points from October.

The Expectations Index was up 0.4% month over month, to 92.3. A reading below 80 typically signals a recession ahead.

Increased consumer confidence may not translate into a huge spending boost this holiday shopping season, however. The index found that consumers’ purchasing plans are marked by uncertainty.

Drilling into the survey, one-third of respondents said jobs were plentiful, down from the 34.1% seen in October. At the same time, the percentage of respondents saying jobs were “hard to get” fell too, to 15.2 from 17.6%.

As for inflation expectations, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months was 43.6%. The share expecting lower rates was 34.6%, the highest since April 2020. Year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.9%, down from 5.3%.

Mixed Spending Plans

Amid the higher confidence, spending plans were mixed. There was intent to buy some goods and pull back on other categories. As measured on a six-month moving average, the release said, “purchasing plans for homes stalled in November, while purchasing plans for autos were up slightly. When asked about plans to buy more durable goods or services over the next six months, consumers continued to express a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.”

“In addition, more consumers expressed uncertainty about future purchases. Consumer buying plans for most appliances and electronics were down. Regarding services, consumers’ priorities were little changed, but they planned to spend a bit less in most categories going forward, except for travel and healthcare.”

The uncertainty over what consumers might buy — and when — was reflected in the PYMNTS Intelligence report “Intrigue or Fatigue? Amid Crowded Deals Landscape, Financial Lifestyle Drives Consumers’ Black Friday Interest.” A quarter of consumers said they are less likely to shop at deal events this year. Thirty-nine percent of shoppers said they are somewhat or much more likely to wait this year than last to buy a product they immediately need. Roughly 59% of consumers said they will either spend the same amount or less than they did last year.

Despite the November confidence, inflation and financial stability remain top concerns as consumers look toward 2025. Many households continue to prioritize lower prices, reduced taxes, savings growth and debt repayment. Inflation is the most pressing issue across all demographics.