Merchants Pin Holiday Hopes on Financially Healthy Consumers

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Consumers are more ready than ever to spend in the coming weeks and months, with robust savings and pent-up demand built during the pandemic, leading several retail executives to project healthy sales going into 2022.

Levi Strauss & Co. CEO Chip Bergh, for example, told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a televised interview that he’s expecting “a really strong holiday season, and it’s all being fueled by a super-strong consumer.” In October, Levi Strauss said it had $1.5 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 41% year over year and 3% on a two-year stack, driven by increased casualization and a need for new clothes.

Related: Consumers Continue to Seek Refreshed Wardrobes, Boosting Levi Strauss Sales

Indeed, PYMNTS research, conducted in collaboration with Kount, found that nearly 1 in 5 consumers say they will spend more this holiday season compared to last year, and 55% say they will spend about the same amount. For digital-only shoppers, the inclination to spend more only increases, with one-third of consumers making only online holiday purchases planning to spend more and 45% of this group planning to spend about the same amount.

Nearly half of shoppers have already begun making holiday purchases, while another 36% will begin in the coming days, on Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

Read more: NEW DATA: Nearly 90% of US Consumers Plan Online Holiday Purchases in 2021 — 13% More Than in 2020

PYMNTS data also show that only 6.6% of consumers are not able to pay for an emergency expense that cost $400 right now, including 4% of those who are living paycheck to paycheck but not struggling to pay bills.

Consumers’ savings levels have begun to dip from pandemic highs in recent months as spending has picked up, with paycheck-to-paycheck consumers who don’t struggle to pay bills depleting their savings by about 23% month over month, to a recent $5,649. The only subset of consumers who have not been depleting their savings are those living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay the bills; savings increased by 1.8% month over month to $3,846 in October.

See: US Consumers’ Savings Dip from Pandemic-Era Highs

Spending Amid Uncertainty

Though COVID-19 cases have once again been rising as the weather turns colder, 50% of U.S. consumers say they plan to resume dining out, traveling and shopping in stores in the coming months, with those worried about how the pandemic has impacted their social lives among the most eager to travel, shop and dine outside their homes.

Part of this may stem from consumers trying to make the most out of the time they have, as the past 20 months have taught them that few things are certain amid a global pandemic. Nearly 50% of consumers are “very” or “extremely” concerned about experiencing additional shutdowns or restrictions because of the pandemic, including 60% of those who live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to pay bills.

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Read the study: The Post-Pandemic Consumer At 18 Months: Spending Now, Worrying Later

Still, those concerns aren’t stopping the spending, with airlines reporting elevated earnings in recent weeks, a positive sign for the recovery of the travel industry. Delta Airlines, for example, reported that revenue in the three months ended Sept. 30 reached 66% of 2019 levels, up from 51% in the three months prior and just 25% at the start of the year.

“Our September quarter marked an important milestone in our recovery, with our first quarterly profit since the start of the pandemic,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said.

Bastian told analysts that Delta expects “continued improvement as offices reopen at the start of the new year, and we anticipate a meaningful acceleration in business travel starting at that point.”

See more: Delta Airlines’ Q3 Profit May Signal Wider Takeoff of Pent-Up Travel Demand