Main Street Merchant Index: Sales Rebound Expectations Vary With Age of Business

Main Street SMBs

Businesses of all ages are struggling in different ways to stay afloat as the COVID-19 pandemic and its variants continue to rage across the U.S. and around the world, but that hasn’t stopped business owners — both new and old — from retaining their optimism about what 2022 has in store for them.

Almost three out of five (57%) younger businesses — those less than three years old—think the economic tailwinds and ongoing efforts to turn around the financial environment almost two years after the coronavirus first began its global spread will lead to increased sales in 2022, according to PYMNTS research.

Slightly more than half of the businesses in the three- to 10-year range (53%) and those more than 10 years old (52%) say they’re optimistic that their sales will rise this year as we start to see some sort of economic turnaround on the horizon, even as retail sales unexpectedly struggled in December 2021.

That’s just one of the many findings in the Main Street Merchant Index: Optimism Amid Inflation Edition, a collaboration between PYMNTS and Melio. The Index was based on a survey of 765 U.S. Main Street business owners from Nov. 4 through Dec. 13, 2021.

For the Index, we sought information about their expectations for their 2022 financial performance and how it will compare to last year. We also asked them to assess the biggest challenges they expect to face in the coming year and what the biggest challenges will be to generate sufficient returns.

And, while there’s a flicker of optimism about what’s ahead in the next year as far as sales, that doesn’t mean everyone is expecting a return to the salad days the came for many years before the coronavirus sank its teeth into millions around the world.

More than half (54%) of Main Street businesses say the increasing inflation across the U.S. puts their sales forecasts at risk and more than three out of five (62%) of Main Street businesses that rely on a mix of online sales and walk-in traffic are optimistic about sales increasing in 2022.

The latter statistic illustrates the importance of an omnichannel approach that incorporates something for everyone, rather than relying only on brick-and-mortar sales or strictly eCommerce.

To put a finer point on that advice, 54% of those who focus primarily on online channels and 51% of those who depend on their storefront as the best way to form long-lasting relationships with their customers. That shows businesses are starting to understand flexibility is the key to their viability.

Almost one-quarter (23%) of Main Street businesses increased their prices in the past three months and consumers haven’t shown that they’ll stay away from buying the things they want even if the price is higher than it used to be or even what they want it to be.

About two-thirds of Main Street business owners say they expect solid sales growth this year but they’re also worried inflation and economic uncertainty could tamp down their lofty goals for 2022, as more people are vaccinated from COVID-19, and beyond.

In perhaps the best indication of what they expect, these business leaders are undeterred from investing in new equipment and accommodating emerging payment methods, including buy now, pay later (BNPL), contactless cards and digital wallets.