Chief financial officers grew more optimistic about their own firm in the second quarter even as they got less optimistic about the overall U.S. economy, according to the latest CFO Survey released Wednesday (June 24) by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in collaboration with the Atlanta Fed and Duke University.
The survey, which included 530 respondents, was fielded from May 18 to June 5.
The headline figure shows that when asked to rate their optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale from 0 to 100, the average rating from CFOs was 60.6. That figure was down 1.1 points from 61.7 in the first quarter of 2026 and down nearly 6 points from the short-term maximum of 66 registered in the fourth quarter of 2024.
When asked to rate their optimism about their own firm, the CFOs’ mean score was 70.7, slightly higher than the 70.2 of the quarter prior and only a few decimal points below the 71.3 registered in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Since the COVID pandemic, the correlation between these two metrics has blurred, indicating that firms are less likely to perceive their own outlook as strictly intertwined with that of the overall economy.
Looking at firm demographics, those with the most employees (500+) were the most optimistic both regarding the economy (63) and their own firms (73.2), although both metrics were below the readings for the quarter prior.
Across sectors, retail and wholesale trade companies, construction and business services all fell roughly 2points in the average assessment about the economic outlook, while only retail and wholesale traders averaged a lower score for their own firm’s outlook (-1.1).
Inflation jumped back to the top of the list of CFOs’ most pressing concerns in the second quarter, with 25% of firms citing this issue compared to just 9.5% in the quarter prior. Inflation was followed closely by non-labor costs, which jumped to 23.5% from 8.5%. Geopolitical risk appeared on the list for the first time, with 10.7% of firms saying this was their most pressing concern.
CFOs expect both costs and prices to rise at a faster rate. The mean expected year-over-year percentage change for this year’s unit costs rose to +4.5% from +3.4% in the quarter prior. Expected price hikes went from 3.6% to 4.7%. Wage increases stood unchanged at 4%.
Chief financial officers’ growth expectations for full-time employment ticked up from 2.2% to 3.6%, although this was not generalized (the median change moved little). Overall, the split of firms regarding their hiring stance (hiring to replace, hiring new positions, laying off workers, etc.) was roughly unchanged from previous surveys.
Financial executives lowered their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.8%, from 2.1% in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability that CFOs assigned to negative year-ahead economic growth edged up slightly to 11.5%.
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High” found that finance leaders see improvement ahead in the business environment, though they are still preparing for turbulence.
The Conference Board’s latest Measure of CEO Confidence, which was released May 28, found that optimism among leaders of large firms plunged in the second quarter. CEOs reported deterioration in their expectations for both their own industries and the broader economy.
